I am going to give you some tips on how to breakdown a game with an example of a game from tonight’s card. I will give you a few free places to look for ATS stats as well. Let’s get started.
1) First key is to not go in with a bias towards any team. Let the situation, trends, and information do the work for you. Do not try to decipher what is going to happen in the game before allowing all of these factors to set in.
My example is tonight’s Jazz vs Lakers game. The Lakers are favored by 2 points in Utah. Do you think the Lakers are the better team? Do you think the Jazz are a poor team? Do you think the Lakers are overrated and the Jazz overrated? None of that matters; do not bring your biases into the discussion. Let the stats confirm or deny your suspicions.
2) What have they done recently? Where do they play next?
The Lakers are coming off of 3 straight wins (2-1 ATS) and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight. They played Phoenix last night and their starters did not get much rest in the game. The Lakers are also playing a back-to-back, and they are 0-3 ATS in b2b’s this year. The Lakers play the Cavs in 2 days at home, so looking ahead should really not be a factor at all.
Utah played Cleveland last night in a game that was not decided until late. They have won 5 games in a row SU and have won ATS in 4 straight. The game tonight is in Utah where they are 4-1 ATS this year. It is a back-to-back game for Utah as well, and they are 2-2 ATS (1-2 on the road and 1-0 at home) on b2b. The Jazz do not play again after the game tonight until the 14th against the Nets in Utah, so they should be pretty focused on the game at hand.
If you do not have a subscription to SportsInsights (which I highly recommend), then you can check out ATS stats with this free software: http://stats.sportsbettingstats.com/NBA/database/main.aspx You can also check out free info about the game at: http://www.sportsbook.ag/statfeed/betting/statfeed.php?page=nba/expanded&gameid=20120111UTAH
3) Analyze the data you have compiled so far
The Lakers are an older team and seem to either take the second leg of b2b’s off or just not have the strength to muster up wins and covers. They probably will not give their best effort and stand a good chance to lose the game SU. Utah does really well at home and has defended their home court pretty well so far. They are performing great ATS at home also. This game looks to be pointing to a bet on the Jazz +2 or no bet at all. There is absolutely no reason to bet the Lakers in this spot, at all. The Jazz are clearly the live dog here.
4) Public Perception and Injuries
If you have a subscription to SportsInsights, then you have the upper hand here. You can track the flow of the bets from one second to the next. The key here is to try and grab the game at the best number. Here is a free page you can check betting action on (with a delay, so you will never be on top of the game): http://www.sportsinsights.com/nba-betting-trends.aspx
I am not going to cover line movements, because I have done that plenty of time before. But I will tell you that getting the best number is part of being sharp. A two or three point swing kills almost all value in basketball games especially. Those points add up to your overall % and ultimately affect the size of your bankroll in the end.
Another factor you must consider is the injury reports for every team. If you have SportsInsights, you do not have to worry about this as you will be notified any time any injury of significance happens and have a list of the sportsbooks who lines do not reflect the injury just yet. But for those that do not have it, you can always check other sites although the line may already have the injury reflected in the line. Here is a link with free injury news: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/injuries/
5) Motivation and Consistency
After you have an initial understanding of where you are going in the game, only a couple of questions remain. Do the Jazz have any reason to not play with motivation in the game tonight? Do they have any extra incentive to play for? What about the Lakers motivation? Are there any winless teams that really need the win coming into the game? Any playoff hopes on the line? Is this a rivalry game? Do you trust the Jazz to come out ready to play?
I think the Jazz will come out ready to play the popular Lakers team; almost everyone plays up a notch for the LA games. The Lakers on the other hand do not have a great reason to take this game more importantly than any other game. Both teams have been playing well, and no playoff hopes or winless teams play a part in this game. I trust that the Jazz will come out and do whatever it takes to defend their home court. If they do win or play really well, they will probably be rewarded with 2 light practices and some time off the court.
6) Bet the game
My pick: Jazz +2
by Rance Young email me: email@example.com