Part 8: Learn to Breakdown and Cap Games
Posted by BTB Team in How to Become a Sports Bettor Series on Apr 23rd, 2012
How to Become a Winning Sports Bettor
Part 8: Learn to Breakdown and Cap Games
1) Initial Perceptions and Bias
First key is to not go in with a bias towards any team. Let the situation, trends, and match-up information do the work for you. Do not try to decipher what is going to happen in the game before allowing all of these factors to set in.
Do you think the Lakers are the better team in a game tonight? Do you think the Colts and the Jaguars are poor teams? Do you think the Heat are overrated and the Hornets are underrated? None of that matters; do not bring your biases into the discussion. Hold back on any decisions until all the information begins to set in.
Part 7: Think Like a Sharp
Posted by BTB Team in How to Become a Sports Bettor Series on Apr 22nd, 2012
How to Become a Winning Sports Bettor
Part 7: Think Like a Sharp
1) Don’t worry if your bet is sharp – Quit worrying about the sharp side of a game and/or fading the public. There is not a sharp/square side to every single game, nor should it really matter what side they are on (the sharp number could easily be gone). A lot of times the sharp side is the public side, but the sharps may have just gotten the number ahead of the majority of the public. Instead try to make solid bets over and over again, and focus on knowing as much as you can about the teams who are playing the game.
Part 6: Understanding Line Movements
Posted by BTB Team in How to Become a Sports Bettor Series on Apr 14th, 2012
How to Become a Winning Sports Bettor
Part 6: Understanding Line Movements
The next step is understanding how lines are set and why they move. Lines are nothing but different prices in a stock market that we call sports betting. If you can get a line at -2.5 instead of -3 while laying the same amount, then you are getting a better deal in our market. If you keep getting these better prices, then that will lead to more extracted value at the end of each year. Getting value is the name of the game. If two teams are evenly matched in every facet of the game, but because of some external factors (excessive media attention, star players being profiled on Sports Center, etc.) one team is favored by 6 points then you are getting value by going against them in this particular game. Public perception creates media frenzy around a team; the frenzy inspires your average Joe to place a wager online; and the line adjusts to the influx of money coming in on that team.
Part 5: Difficult Bets, Best of Numbers, and Key Numbers
Posted by BTB Team in How to Become a Sports Bettor Series on Mar 25th, 2012
How to Become a Winning Sports Bettor
Part 5: Difficult Bets, Best of Numbers, and Key Numbers
Now we have gotten through all of the sign-ups and psychological factors that usually hinder new bettors: it is time to start getting serious about this. You are now following and tailing some of the best free bettors (who are usually the best) on twitter, and you have started trying to actively figure out why these guys have placed their bets on these particular sides and totals. People that win money consistently betting sports will tell you the most important thing they look for is value. Sharps, as they are known, are the ones that can consistently find these winners over and over based on power ranks, trends, situations, formulas, etc. Regardless of the means, we all are simply looking for the best way to determine the value of any bet so that we win money over time. It is no different than a Wall Street trader looking for a stock that is under-valued now in hopes of making a profit down the road.
Part 4: Dealing with Losses and Tailing Bettors
Posted by BTB Team in How to Become a Sports Bettor Series on Mar 22nd, 2012
How to Become a Winning Sports Bettor
Part 4: Dealing with Losses and Tailing Bettors
Dealing with Losses
Learning how to deal with losing is the single-most important factor in deciding whether you make money or lose money when betting sports. Staying focused on the next game (instead of the last game) and not worrying about a bad day (or even a bad week) is what separates 55% bettors without discipline who lose and 58% bettors with discipline who win every single year. Some gamblers who lose one big game hate losing so bad that it pisses them off, and they end up doubling down or betting 2 or 3 games without much time to study and cap the games like they should. Keeping your cool will save you more money than anything else you can do while betting; inversely, losing your head while betting will lose you a whole bunch of money in the long- or short-term. You have to stay driven, level-headed, and mechanical (think Kobe Bryant in the 4th quarter of a playoff game) before and after you place your bets. No matter if I am 2-8 over my last 10 or 8-2 over my last 10, I still place my bets the exact same way.
