The 3 Best Sports Betting Tips
People that win money consistently betting sports will tell you the most important thing they look for is value. Sharps, as they are known, are the ones that can consistently find these winners over and over based on power ranks, trends, situations, or formulas. Regardless of the means, we all are simply looking for the best way to determine the value of any bet so that we win money over time. It is no different than a Wall Street trader looking for a stock that is under-priced now in hopes of making a profit down the road. Here are 3 tips to help you find value, get the best of numbers, and understand middling key numbers.
1) Make Difficult Bets
I have a natural bias towards underdogs and unders. If you are new to betting then you need to adopt this approach from the get-go. Most players can break even each year simply by betting dogs and unders in good spots. The key to a winning season is usually just understanding which dogs and unders offer little to no value.
So why do dogs and unders traditionally offer value? It is simply because people naturally find it hard to bet the worst team or to bet the under and sit around rooting for no one to score. We like to bet on the better team that looked great on national tv last week. We also prefer betting on high-scoring affairs where no team can stop the other. Betting on favorites and betting overs are simply what come natural to most human beings. Because the books know this, they can set their lines a little higher than they should be in order to make money off your average Joe. If the Pats-Packers are playing and the over should be 54 then the books will probably be able to inflate that number past 56 without losing much action. That number literally could not be high enough.
In some cases, just the opposite is true. If Baltimore is playing Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football then the over-reactive public might love the under because of the two strong defenses. Betting the over 37 might be where you get value in a game like that. These difficult bets are where you end up getting value. If it is an easy bet (like betting the Lions -5 vs the 49ers last week after their hot start) then you are probably not getting any value. The people that got value in that spot were the people that made the difficult decision to bet the 49ers over the red hot Lions. Never be afraid to make the difficult bet because usually that is going to be the side with value.
2) Get the Best of the Number
A lot of sharps will tell you the most important thing to winning is getting on the right side of a key number. If you can get a game that closes at -4 at -2.5 early in the week then you are getting the best of it. You even set yourself up for a good middle if you choose to do so. You should always try to predict where the line is going to go and get your money down when it is in the best spot. If you think a line is going to go from +2.5 up to +3.5 (and you like the underdog) then you should wait and grab it later on when it does. If you like the favorite then you want to take the -6.5 before that line goes up. Getting value is usually just synonymous with getting the best number available. The number is already going to have been shaped by sharp action before it is even available to you, so predicting where the number is going and getting your bet down at the right time are the two keys. You should have 4 to 5 different books that you can place action on, so that you can compare books and get the best number. Some books have differentials of -2 or more and getting those points in the long run is the same as getting value and money. The MOST important key to winning money betting sports is getting on the right side of the key numbers 3, 7, and 10.
3) Get off of Key Numbers
You do not bet on teams, you bet on numbers. 3 is the most important number out there. A game lands on 3 more than any other number. You can work middles [taking the +3.5 (-125) and laying -2.5 (-110) on the other side] and will win both sides around 15% of the time. Middling the 7 will win about 12% of the time, so you will still win money there too. If you middle the 3 betting 100 bucks a game and do it 10 times, then you will usually profit $150-170. The 2-point conversion made the 3 especially important. If a team is down 17-6 and scores late, then the conversion gives the opportunity to middle the 3 with a 17-14 final (which would have been impossible before the conversion). If you do not want to middle, then you still need to be on the right side of the number. Being on the right side of 3 or 7 is the difference between a sharp and a square play. Middling games is a key way to working your bankroll like a sharp. No matter if you are only betting $25-$100 a game, it will help you bet and understand numbers like a sharp.
by Rance Young email me: email@example.com